The Abramowitz model assumes elections are a referendum on the current administration. Does the fact that the race is so much closer than it should be according to this model suggest that McCain really has succeeded in separating himself from the Bush administration, despite Obama’s attempts to link him to it?

The Republican Convention was marked by the absence of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, conveniently stationed in Washington or across the globe. However, the substance of the convention in many ways did not depart from the policies of the Bush administration. “Drill, baby, drill” hardly fits the theme of change.

Since candidates have few opportunities to affect their own destiny, as Professor Dickinson pointed out, any success McCain has had in separating himself from the current Republican administration can be attributed to McCain’s pick of Sarah Palin. Importantly, this was an opportunity entirely handed to the Republican’s by the Obama campaign’s failure to choose Hillary Clinton as VP. During the primaries, these posts often pointed to small ways in which the Obama campaign was well organized and perhaps better run than the Clinton campaign (for example the delay of reporting from Lake County in Indiana, the rollout of the Edwards endorsement). Has the campaign fallen apart in recent weeks? Are other factors, such as Obama’s race or inexperience significant enough to change the face of the election?

Perhaps a more interesting disparity than the one between the polls and non-survey based election models is the disparity between how the media and punditry are reacting to the Palin pick and the reality on the ground. A great number of writers are focusing on her perceived incompetence in national and international affairs and her socially conservative views on issues considered important to women, and in doing so have blamed McCain for running a purely “political” campaign, or as Thomas Friedman put it in “Making America Stupid,” selling his soul (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/14/opinion/14friedman.html?ref=opinion). However, none of the pundits’ disparaging of Sarah Palin has altered the fact that she remains hugely popular with the public, making her pick a brilliant move by McCain. Furthermore, I have yet to see anyone in the mainstream take on this side of the Palin topic seriously, other than to call the American public stupid.

Is no press bad press or do we live in a far more culturally divided nation than I thought?

Nice to see you in the blogosphere, Matt!

By the way, Matt, when is your prediction going to come out ? When we took your class a few weeks ago, I thought you said you would post it after the conventions ?!