Comments on: Was the Iranian presidential election stolen?

By: Polemarchus

Polemarchus — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 18:51:48 +0000

More independent study of the Iranian election results (the ones the Interior Ministry released, that is).

http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/chatham-house-study-definitively-shows.html

http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/files/14234_iranelection0609.pdf

By: Matthew Dickinson

Matthew Dickinson — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 01:25:58 +0000

Jack – Not necessarily. It’s pretty apparent that Mousavi’s supporters are convinced the election was stolen, and they will dismiss any recount supervised by the ruling elite that suggests otherwise – even if the recount is accurate and confirms that Ahmadinejad did win. The demonstrations have long since transcended questions regarding the accuracy of the vote count – what we are seeing now is a struggle for power and governmental control. The legitimacy of the ruling regime is potentially at stake, something Ayatollah Ali Khamenei clearly realizes. He’s not about to sit by and watch these demonstrations morph into a pro-democracy movement that could threaten the ruling regime.

Marty – I think under the “normal” election rules, you are absolutely right – the idea that these elections constitute an exercise in popular control is a farce. However, I do think Khamenei is worried that these demonstrations might spark a movement toward legitimate democracy – with real oppositions, free speech, etc. That’s what’s driving the crackdown.

Obama is getting pummeled from both the Right and Left for his lukewarm response to the crisis to date, but he’s in a very difficult position. I’m going to devote a separate post to this, but my short answer is I don’t think he has very many options. Once again, he is finding that campaigning is not very good preparation for governing. In this instance, if he condemns the crackdown, he plays into Ahmadinejad’s and Khamenei’s argument that the U.S. is inciting the demonstrations and meddling in Iranian affairs. He also potentially makes it more difficult to engage in a dialogue with the Iranian government regarding nuclear weapons.

By: Martin

Martin — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 18:59:55 +0000

Thank you! I wondered what your take would be. I gave up reading op/eds by statisticians on the Iranian election because they began to sound, well, a little political. Or metaphysical, anyway.

I think you also nailed it at the end. It’s not about accuracy, it’s about legitimacy. There is something funny about how a “winner” wins in this situation. Poll his supporters, and I am sure you will find that a majority of them do not particularly care if elections are free and fair. So who is the regime kidding when they take a vote? Guys, either you’re a banana republic or you’re not.

Any reactionary clique worth its salt knows this is too much of a hassle. Just have a real vote, hand the opposition a defanged executive, and ride a popular backlash back into power. Then you get to declare democracy a failed experiment, and rewrite the rules all over again.

Best of luck on your manuscript, Matt.

By: Jack Goodman

Jack Goodman — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 11:38:24 +0000

Matt, Doesn’t the fact that that the government tried to shut down the email and other communication systems suggest that the government had something to hide?

As well, the protests have been relatively peaceful, but the Supreme Leader is threatening dire consequences. What does he have to fear about a recount if the results were so overwhelming?

I think the circumstantial evidence is “beyond a reasonable doubt”.

A question for you: Do you think Obama should take a stronger line in this matter, as the Republicans suggest?

Jack